Tuesday, August 11, 2009

How Statistical Models And Causal Inferences Affect Survival Rates Of Cancer

By Rita Dalian

There are national differences in life expectancy figures after a diagnosis of cancer. In general countries tend not to discuss the results as life expectancy because causal factors such as the environment and lifestyle have an impact on the results. Life styles are important indicators of general health but the US fares badly in lifestyle comparisons when compared to other countries partly because of their obesity levels across all ages and races. US health authorities prefer to look at the statistical figures as cancer survival statistics because statistically they look better.

However health care has a multidimensional aspect and quantitative analysis type that produces statistics and comparison. In order to have a meaningful comparisons you have to compare like from like and yet those comparisons are not always possible. Less people smoke statistically in the US, but they are morel likely to be obese. If raw comparisons are going to be made it may be better to look at life expectancy rather than survival rates.

Maybe the first questions people ask when first diagnosed with cancer is about their prognosis, and the question they are really asking is how long are they are going to survive? Cancer survival rates or cancer survival statistics predict the percentage of people who survive a certain type of cancer for a specified number of years. These figures are compiled from national statistics of people from all ages and backgrounds that have your type of cancer and they use a five-year survival rate as the first bench mark. They include those that were diagnosed early and those that the diagnosis was not made until the late stages of cancer.

However statistics of cancer survival are not telling you everything, for instance the five year survival rates do not specify whether the patients are in remission or whether or not they are still receiving treatment. Some patients have a disease free survival rates which means that their cancer has been cures. Others have had some success with treatment but they are not free of the disease.

A nature of any statistic, is the fact that they are predicting a probability in the population at large, therefore thousands and thousands of people have to be studied, but that does not have any bearing on your individual prognosis. Both you are your neighbor can have breast cancer or prostate cancer and they can both be in the same stage at the same time. However that does not meant that your prognosis is in any way the same.

Different factors should be considered:Genetic factors, lifestyle changes, a positive attitude, an ability and willingness to look at new treatments and be open about the outcome will all have a profound defect on your chances of beating cancer. It is just that no more no less a statistic and for that reason may people choose to successfully ignore cancer survival statistics, because there is no reason at all that they should have any bearing on your outcome.

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